Hourly snow forecasts over complex terrain.

New working Paper Available Now

Just in time (before all the snow melts in front of the office) the new working paper/tech report became available. The paper is about a new hybrid approach to create high-resolution forecasts of fresh snow amounts and/or snowfall over Tyrol, Austria.

Short overview

The whole technical report can be downloaded here.

Abstract

Accurate and high-resolution snowfall and fresh snow forecasts are important for a range of economic sectors as well as for the safety of people and infrastructure, especially in mountainous regions. In this article a new hybrid statistical postprocessing method is proposed, which combines standardized anomaly model output statistics (SAMOS) with ensemble copula coupling (ECC) and a novel re-weighting scheme to produce spatially and temporally high-resolution probabilistic snow forecasts. Ensemble forecasts and hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) serve as input for the statistical postprocessing method, while measurements from two different networks provide the required observations.

This new approach is applied to a region with very complex topography in the Eastern European Alps. The results demonstrate that the new hybrid method not only allows to provide reliable high-resolution forecasts, it also allows to combine different data sources with different temporal resolutions to create hourly probabilistic and physically consistent predictions.